Over 1.5 goals@1.61
Over 1.5
62%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 11Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta
Sabadell
10th · 17 pts1–1FULL TIME
Tenerife
12th · 14 pts46% Sabadell
29% Draw
25% Tenerife
OUR PICK
Sabadell to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.18
Expected goals
1.26 – 0.85
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.18X3.4423.99
Goals 2.5Over2.70Under1.55
Both scoreGG2.30NG1.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Under 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.70
NG
59%
Double chance@1.33
1X
75%
Season stats
SabadellTenerife1.0Goals per game1.2
0.9Conceded per game1.4
1.42Points per game1.27
33%Win rate27%
1Goal difference-2
5Form, last 5 (pts)4
Sabadell form
LDLWDA Albacete2–1
H Tenerife1–1
A Burgos1–0
A AD Ceuta FC1–2
H FC Andorra0–0
Tenerife form
DDDLA Sabadell1–1
A Celta de Vigo II1–1
H Girona1–1
A Cordoba3–2
Head to head
1
Sabadell
1
Draw
1
Tenerife
Oct 2026Sabadell – Tenerife1–1
May 2021Sabadell – Tenerife0–2
Dec 2020Tenerife – Sabadell1–2
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Sporting Gijon12022
6Girona12+1121
7Burgos12+421
8Mallorca11+719
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Sabadell slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.18 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.26 for Sabadell, 0.85 for Tenerife), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sabadell sit 10th on 17 points; Tenerife are 12th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.