Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
BRASerie B · Matchday 35Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Estadio Primeiro de Maio
São Bernardo
10th · 52 pts3–2FULL TIME
Vila Nova
3rd · 63 pts40% São
27% Draw
33% Vila
OUR PICK
São Bernardo to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.49
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.17
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.49X3.7123.04
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.83
Both scoreGG1.98NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.98
GG
51%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
São BernardoVila Nova1.4Goals per game1.4
1.1Conceded per game1.1
1.44Points per game1.75
39%Win rate50%
11Goal difference14
7Form, last 5 (pts)6
São Bernardo form
WWLDLA Cuiaba1–2
H Vila Nova3–2
H Criciuma0–1
A Juventude2–2
A Sport Recife2–1
Vila Nova form
DLDWDH Juventude2–2
A São Bernardo3–2
H Novorizontino2–2
A Nautico Recife0–2
H Cuiaba0–0
Head to head
1
São
0
Draw
1
Vila
Oct 2026São Bernardo – Vila Nova3–2
Jul 2026Vila Nova – São Bernardo2–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense36+955
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: São Bernardo 40%, the draw 27%, Vila Nova 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.49 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.32 for São Bernardo, 1.17 for Vila Nova), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
São Bernardo sit 10th on 52 points; Vila Nova are 3rd on 63.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.