Over 1.5 goals@1.59
Over 1.5
63%
BRASerie B · Matchday 34Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estadio Primeiro de Maio
São Bernardo
10th · 52 pts0–1FULL TIME
Criciuma
4th · 62 pts43% São
29% Draw
28% Criciuma
OUR PICK
São Bernardo to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.31
Expected goals
1.22 – 0.91
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.31X3.4223.63
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.56
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.73
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.73
NG
58%
Double chance@1.38
1X
72%
Season stats
São BernardoCriciuma1.4Goals per game1.1
1.1Conceded per game0.8
1.44Points per game1.72
39%Win rate50%
11Goal difference8
7Form, last 5 (pts)9
São Bernardo form
WWLDLA Cuiaba1–2
H Vila Nova3–2
H Criciuma0–1
A Juventude2–2
A Sport Recife2–1
Criciuma form
WLWWLH Ponte Preta2–0
A Sport Recife2–1
A São Bernardo0–1
H America Mineiro1–0
A Ceara1–0
Head to head
0
São
0
Draw
2
Criciuma
Oct 2026São Bernardo – Criciuma0–1
Jun 2026Criciuma – São Bernardo1–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB36+355
7Goias36-355
8Sport Recife36+955
9Atletico Goianiense36+955
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes São Bernardo slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.31 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.22 for São Bernardo, 0.91 for Criciuma), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
São Bernardo sit 10th on 52 points; Criciuma are 4th on 62.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.