ENGLeague Two · Matchday 13Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Aesseal New York Stadium

Rotherham

22nd · 12 pts

3–3FULL TIME

Shrewsbury

15th · 18 pts

42% Rotherham

26% Draw

32% Shrewsbury

OUR PICK

Rotherham to win

Model probability 42% · fair odds

2.39

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.22

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.39X3.8623.11

Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.98

Both scoreGG1.87NG2.05

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.35

Over 1.5

74%

Over/Under 2.5@1.98

Under 2.5

51%

Both teams to score@1.87

54%

Double chance@1.35

74%

Season stats

RotherhamShrewsbury

1.3Goals per game1.2

1.8Conceded per game1.6

0.86Points per game1.29

14%Win rate36%

-7Goal difference-5

2Form, last 5 (pts)7

Rotherham form

LDDLL

A Swindon Town2–1

H Shrewsbury3–3

H Newport County2–2

A Fleetwood Town2–0

H Gillingham1–4

Shrewsbury form

LWDWW

H Gillingham1–2

H Everton U212–1

A Rotherham3–3

A Crawley Town2–3

H Bristol Rovers1–0

Head to head

Rotherham

Draw

Shrewsbury

Oct 2026Rotherham – Shrewsbury3–3

Feb 2025Rotherham – Shrewsbury1–2

Sept 2024Shrewsbury – Rotherham1–1

Mar 2022Rotherham – Shrewsbury0–3

Mar 2022Shrewsbury – Rotherham0–0

League Two table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Salford City14+1031

2Barnet13+1026

3Walsall13+922

4Crewe14022

5Cheltenham14-221

6Grimsby14+620

7York14+320

8Gillingham14+120

9Accrington ST14+619

10Chesterfield14+319

Match preview

Our model makes Rotherham slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.43 for Rotherham, 1.22 for Shrewsbury), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Rotherham sit 22nd on 12 points; Shrewsbury are 15th on 18.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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