Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 12Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Aesseal New York Stadium
Rotherham
22nd · 12 pts2–2FULL TIME
Newport County
14th · 18 pts31% Rotherham
25% Draw
44% Newport
OUR PICK
Newport County to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.30
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.52
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.20X3.9722.30
Goals 2.5Over1.91Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.79NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.79
GG
56%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
RotherhamNewport County1.3Goals per game1.4
1.8Conceded per game1.2
0.86Points per game1.29
14%Win rate29%
-7Goal difference3
2Form, last 5 (pts)8
Rotherham form
LDDLLA Swindon Town2–1
H Shrewsbury3–3
H Newport County2–2
A Fleetwood Town2–0
H Gillingham1–4
Newport County form
WLDDWH Chesterfield4–1
A Cheltenham1–0
A Rotherham2–2
H York1–1
H Colchester1–0
Head to head
0
Rotherham
1
Draw
0
Newport
Oct 2026Rotherham – Newport County2–2
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Newport County slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.30 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.25 for Rotherham, 1.52 for Newport County), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Rotherham sit 22nd on 12 points; Newport County are 14th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.