ENGLeague Two · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Aesseal New York Stadium

Rotherham

22nd · 12 pts

1–4FULL TIME

Gillingham

8th · 20 pts

42% Rotherham

25% Draw

32% Gillingham

OUR PICK

Rotherham to win

Model probability 42% · fair odds

2.36

Expected goals

1.51 – 1.29

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.36X3.9823.08

Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01

Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.30

Over 1.5

77%

Over/Under 2.5@1.89

Over 2.5

53%

Both teams to score@1.77

56%

Double chance@1.34

75%

Season stats

RotherhamGillingham

1.3Goals per game1.4

1.8Conceded per game1.4

0.86Points per game1.43

14%Win rate36%

-7Goal difference1

2Form, last 5 (pts)7

Rotherham form

LDDLL

A Swindon Town2–1

H Shrewsbury3–3

H Newport County2–2

A Fleetwood Town2–0

H Gillingham1–4

Gillingham form

WLDLW

A Shrewsbury1–2

H Grimsby1–4

H Port Vale1–1

A Accrington ST3–1

H Brighton U214–3

Head to head

Rotherham

Draw

Gillingham

Oct 2026Rotherham – Gillingham1–4

Apr 2022Gillingham – Rotherham0–2

Dec 2021Rotherham – Gillingham5–1

Nov 2019Gillingham – Rotherham0–3

Apr 2018Gillingham – Rotherham0–1

League Two table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Salford City14+1031

2Barnet13+1026

3Walsall13+922

4Crewe14022

5Cheltenham14-221

6Grimsby14+620

7York14+320

8Gillingham14+120

9Accrington ST14+619

10Chesterfield14+319

Match preview

Our model makes Rotherham slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.36 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.51 for Rotherham, 1.29 for Gillingham), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Rotherham sit 22nd on 12 points; Gillingham are 8th on 20.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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