Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
85%
GER3. Liga · Matchday 11Friday, 23 October 2026 · Stadion Essen
Rot-Weiß Essen
3rd · 24 pts1–0FULL TIME
SSV Jahn Regensburg
16th · 13 pts54% Rot-Weiß
21% Draw
25% SSV
OUR PICK
Rot-Weiß Essen to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.86
Expected goals
2.06 – 1.35
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.86X4.7024.01
Goals 2.5Over1.51Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.55NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.55
GG
65%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
Rot-Weiß EssenSSV Jahn Regensburg1.7Goals per game1.8
1.1Conceded per game1.8
2.00Points per game1.08
58%Win rate25%
7Goal difference1
10Form, last 5 (pts)8
Rot-Weiß Essen form
WLWLWA SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach0–1
H RB Leipzig1–2
H SSV Jahn Regensburg1–0
A FC Ingolstadt 041–0
H Fortuna Köln2–0
SSV Jahn Regensburg form
WLDDWH Hansa Rostock2–1
A Rot-Weiß Essen1–0
H SV Wehen0–0
A Verl2–2
H Havelse5–0
Head to head
4
Rot-Weiß
1
Draw
0
SSV
Oct 2026Rot-Weiß Essen – SSV Jahn Regensburg1–0
Feb 2026Rot-Weiß Essen – SSV Jahn Regensburg3–2
Sept 2025SSV Jahn Regensburg – Rot-Weiß Essen1–3
Feb 2024Jahn Regensburg – Rot-weiss Essen1–3
Sept 2023Rot-weiss Essen – Jahn Regensburg0–0
3. Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Viktoria Köln12+1626
2MSV Duisburg12+1426
3Rot-Weiß Essen12+724
4FC Saarbrücken12+720
5Alemannia Aachen12+120
6SV Wehen12+618
7FC Ingolstadt 0412-118
8Waldhof Mannheim12+216
9Hoffenheim II12+116
10Fortuna Düsseldorf12-216
Match preview
Our model makes Rot-Weiß Essen slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.86 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.06 for Rot-Weiß Essen, 1.35 for SSV Jahn Regensburg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Rot-Weiß Essen sit 3rd on 24 points; SSV Jahn Regensburg are 16th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.