Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
FRALigue 2 · Matchday 9Monday, 19 October 2026 · Stade Paul Lignon
Rodez
11th · 13 pts0–3FULL TIME
Montpellier
2nd · 24 pts27% Rodez
26% Draw
47% Montpellier
OUR PICK
Montpellier to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.11
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.52
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.71X3.9022.11
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.94NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.94
GG
52%
Double chance@1.34
12
74%
Season stats
RodezMontpellier1.5Goals per game1.5
2.0Conceded per game0.5
1.18Points per game2.18
36%Win rate64%
-5Goal difference10
6Form, last 5 (pts)13
Rodez form
WWLLWH Dunkerque1–0
A Dijon1–2
H Montpellier0–3
A Saint Etienne2–0
H Inter Club d'Escaldes2–0
Montpellier form
WWWWDA Annecy0–3
H RED Star FC 932–1
A Rodez0–3
H Grenoble2–0
A Reims1–1
Head to head
2
Rodez
0
Draw
3
Montpellier
Oct 2026Rodez – Montpellier0–3
Aug 2026Montpellier – Rodez4–2
Feb 2026Rodez – Montpellier1–0
Oct 2025Montpellier – Rodez2–0
Jul 2025Montpellier – Rodez0–2
Ligue 2 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Saint Etienne11+1225
2Montpellier11+1024
3Nancy11+722
4Reims11+1021
5PAU11+520
6RED Star FC 9311-217
7Annecy11-116
8Dijon11+115
9Guingamp11+114
10Metz11014
Match preview
Our model makes Montpellier slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.11 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.08 for Rodez, 1.52 for Montpellier), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Rodez sit 11th on 13 points; Montpellier are 2nd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.