Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
89%
FRALigue 2 · Matchday 11Friday, 30 October 2026 · Stade Paul Lignon
Rodez
11th · 13 pts1–0FULL TIME
Dunkerque
12th · 12 pts42% Rodez
21% Draw
36% Dunkerque
OUR PICK
Rodez to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.37
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.80
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.37X4.6722.75
Goals 2.5Over1.38Under3.37
Both scoreGG1.40NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.38
Over 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.40
GG
72%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
RodezDunkerque1.5Goals per game1.3
2.0Conceded per game1.5
1.18Points per game1.09
36%Win rate27%
-5Goal difference-3
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
Rodez form
WWLLWH Dunkerque1–0
A Dijon1–2
H Montpellier0–3
A Saint Etienne2–0
H Inter Club d'Escaldes2–0
Dunkerque form
LDWLLA Rodez1–0
H Metz1–1
A Nantes2–3
H Annecy0–1
H RAAL La Louvière0–4
Head to head
2
Rodez
2
Draw
1
Dunkerque
Oct 2026Rodez – Dunkerque1–0
Apr 2026Dunkerque – Rodez1–1
Nov 2025Rodez – Dunkerque1–1
Mar 2025Rodez – Dunkerque5–1
Aug 2024Dunkerque – Rodez1–0
Ligue 2 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Saint Etienne11+1225
2Montpellier11+1024
3PAU11+520
4Nancy10+419
5Reims10+818
6RED Star FC 9310+117
7Annecy11-116
8Dijon11+115
9Guingamp11+114
10Metz11014
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Rodez 42%, the draw 21%, Dunkerque 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (1.95 for Rodez, 1.80 for Dunkerque), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Rodez sit 11th on 13 points; Dunkerque are 12th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.