Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 10Friday, 9 October 2026 · Parkstad Limburg
Roda
4th · 25 pts1–1FULL TIME
Jong PSV U21
12th · 16 pts53% Roda
26% Draw
22% Jong
OUR PICK
Roda to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.87
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.90X3.8624.64
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.75
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.27
1X
78%
Season stats
RodaJong PSV U211.3Goals per game1.4
0.9Conceded per game1.6
1.92Points per game1.33
54%Win rate33%
5Goal difference-2
10Form, last 5 (pts)5
Roda form
WWWWDH Jong AZ2–1
H De Graafschap1–0
A Almere City FC2–3
A Jong Utrecht1–2
H Jong PSV U211–1
Jong PSV U21 form
WWLDLA Ipswich Town U210–7
A FC Eindhoven1–2
H Dordrecht0–1
A Roda1–1
A Vitesse3–1
Head to head
2
Roda
2
Draw
1
Jong
Oct 2026Roda – Jong PSV U211–1
Mar 2026Roda – Jong PSV U210–2
Sept 2025Jong PSV U21 – Roda0–1
Jul 2025Jong PSV U21 – Roda1–1
Mar 2025Roda – Jong PSV U212–1
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Roda clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.52 for Roda, 0.87 for Jong PSV U21), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Roda sit 4th on 25 points; Jong PSV U21 are 12th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.