NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 13Friday, 30 October 2026 · Parkstad Limburg

Roda

4th · 25 pts

2–1FULL TIME

Jong AZ

10th · 17 pts

48% Roda

23% Draw

29% Jong

OUR PICK

Roda to win

Model probability 48% · fair odds

2.08

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.35

Confidence

Fair

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.08X4.3423.46

Goals 2.5Over1.64Under2.42

Both scoreGG1.62NG2.48

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.22

Over 1.5

82%

Over/Under 2.5@1.64

Over 2.5

61%

Both teams to score@1.62

62%

Double chance@1.30

77%

Season stats

RodaJong AZ

1.3Goals per game2.5

0.9Conceded per game2.2

1.92Points per game1.31

54%Win rate38%

5Goal difference4

10Form, last 5 (pts)7

Roda form

WWWWD

H Jong AZ2–1

H De Graafschap1–0

A Almere City FC2–3

A Jong Utrecht1–2

H Jong PSV U211–1

Jong AZ form

LWDLW

A Roda2–1

H Helmond Sport5–4

A VVV Venlo4–4

H Den Bosch0–1

H FC Volendam4–1

Head to head

Roda

Draw

Jong

Oct 2026Roda – Jong AZ2–1

Apr 2026Jong AZ – Roda2–0

Dec 2025Roda – Jong AZ2–3

Feb 2025Roda – Jong AZ3–3

Aug 2024Jong AZ – Roda6–1

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Heracles12+2329

2VVV Venlo13+1528

3Almere City FC13+1425

4Roda13+525

5Emmen13+225

6NAC Breda12+321

7FC Volendam13+819

8Den Bosch13+218

9Vitesse12-117

10Jong AZ13+417

Match preview

Our model makes Roda slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.80 for Roda, 1.35 for Jong AZ), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Roda sit 4th on 25 points; Jong AZ are 10th on 17.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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