Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
82%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 12Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Spotland Stadium
Rochdale
19th · 15 pts2–2FULL TIME
Grimsby
6th · 20 pts26% Rochdale
23% Draw
51% Grimsby
OUR PICK
Grimsby to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.94
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.85
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.87X4.3921.94
Goals 2.5Over1.67Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.66NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.66
GG
60%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
RochdaleGrimsby1.2Goals per game1.7
1.9Conceded per game1.3
1.07Points per game1.43
29%Win rate36%
-9Goal difference6
2Form, last 5 (pts)7
Rochdale form
LLDLDA Port Vale4–2
H Accrington ST0–5
H Grimsby2–2
A Crewe3–2
A Tranmere1–1
Grimsby form
WWDLLH York5–2
A Gillingham1–4
A Rochdale2–2
H Northampton0–2
A Port Vale1–0
Head to head
2
Rochdale
1
Draw
2
Grimsby
Oct 2026Rochdale – Grimsby2–2
Jul 2025Rochdale – Grimsby2–0
Mar 2023Grimsby – Rochdale1–0
Aug 2022Rochdale – Grimsby0–1
Aug 2018Grimsby – Rochdale0–2
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Grimsby slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.94 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.25 for Rochdale, 1.85 for Grimsby), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Rochdale sit 19th on 15 points; Grimsby are 6th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.