Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 13Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Spotland Stadium
Rochdale
19th · 15 pts0–5FULL TIME
Accrington ST
9th · 19 pts38% Rochdale
25% Draw
37% Accrington
OUR PICK
Rochdale to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.63
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.42
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.63X4.0022.70
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.73
GG
58%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
RochdaleAccrington ST1.2Goals per game1.6
1.9Conceded per game1.2
1.07Points per game1.36
29%Win rate29%
-9Goal difference6
2Form, last 5 (pts)9
Rochdale form
LLDLDA Port Vale4–2
H Accrington ST0–5
H Grimsby2–2
A Crewe3–2
A Tranmere1–1
Accrington ST form
DWDWDH Northampton1–1
A Rochdale0–5
A York1–1
H Gillingham3–1
A Oldham0–0
Head to head
2
Rochdale
1
Draw
2
Accrington
Oct 2026Rochdale – Accrington ST0–5
Aug 2022Accrington ST – Rochdale3–3
Apr 2021Rochdale – Accrington ST3–1
Oct 2020Accrington ST – Rochdale2–1
Jan 2020Accrington ST – Rochdale1–2
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Rochdale 38%, the draw 25%, Accrington ST 37%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.63 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.44 for Rochdale, 1.42 for Accrington ST), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Rochdale sit 19th on 15 points; Accrington ST are 9th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.