Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
62%
NGANPFL · Matchday 9Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Yakubu Gowon Stadium
Rivers United
1st · 18 pts0–0FULL TIME
Barau FC
7th · 16 pts55% Rivers
27% Draw
18% Barau
OUR PICK
Rivers United to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.67
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.82X3.6525.64
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.53
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.58
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.58
NG
63%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
Rivers UnitedBarau FC1.4Goals per game1.2
0.5Conceded per game0.9
1.64Points per game1.45
36%Win rate27%
10Goal difference3
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
Rivers United form
DLDDWH Enugu Rangers1–1
A Bendel Insurance2–1
H Barau FC0–0
A Abia Warriors0–0
H Ikorodu City2–0
Barau FC form
DDDDLA Niger Tornadoes0–0
H Kwara United1–1
A Rivers United0–0
H Enugu Rangers2–2
A Bendel Insurance4–1
Head to head
1
Rivers
1
Draw
1
Barau
Oct 2026Rivers United – Barau FC0–0
Feb 2026Rivers United – Barau FC1–0
Dec 2025Barau FC – Rivers United4–1
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Rivers United clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.41 for Rivers United, 0.67 for Barau FC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Rivers United sit 1st on 18 points; Barau FC are 7th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.