Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 11Sunday, 8 November 2026
Rio Ave
16th · 7 pts21:30KICK-OFF WAT
SC Braga
8th · 14 pts23% Rio
24% Draw
53% SC
OUR PICK
SC Braga to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.88
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.67
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.42X4.1121.88
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.00
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@2.00
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.29
X2
77%
Season stats
Rio AveSC Braga0.9Goals per game1.2
2.3Conceded per game1.1
0.70Points per game1.40
20%Win rate40%
-14Goal difference1
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
Rio Ave form
LLWWLA Academico Viseu2–1
H Famalicao0–4
A Louletano0–1
H Nacional3–2
A Alverca1–0
SC Braga form
WDLWLH Famalicao3–0
H Famalicao2–2
A Nacional1–0
H Gent2–0
H GIL Vicente1–2
Head to head
1
Rio
2
Draw
2
SC
Feb 2026SC Braga – Rio Ave3–0
Aug 2025Rio Ave – SC Braga2–2
Mar 2025Rio Ave – SC Braga2–1
Sept 2024SC Braga – Rio Ave4–0
Mar 2024Rio Ave – SC Braga0–0
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model makes SC Braga slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.00 for Rio Ave, 1.67 for SC Braga), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Rio Ave sit 16th on 7 points; SC Braga are 8th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.