Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estádio dos Arcos
Rio Ave
16th · 7 pts3–2FULL TIME
Nacional
15th · 7 pts32% Rio
26% Draw
41% Nacional
OUR PICK
Nacional to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.42
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.39
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.09X3.8022.42
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.92
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
Rio AveNacional0.9Goals per game1.0
2.3Conceded per game1.9
0.70Points per game0.70
20%Win rate20%
-14Goal difference-9
4Form, last 5 (pts)3
Rio Ave form
LLWWLA Academico Viseu2–1
H Famalicao0–4
A Louletano0–1
H Nacional3–2
A Alverca1–0
Nacional form
LWLLLA Arouca1–0
H SC Braga1–0
A Sanjoanense1–0
A Rio Ave3–2
H Famalicao0–4
Head to head
2
Rio
2
Draw
1
Nacional
Oct 2026Rio Ave – Nacional3–2
Jan 2026Nacional – Rio Ave4–0
Aug 2025Rio Ave – Nacional1–1
May 2025Nacional – Rio Ave3–3
Dec 2024Rio Ave – Nacional2–1
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Rio Ave 32%, the draw 26%, Nacional 41%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.20 for Rio Ave, 1.39 for Nacional), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Rio Ave sit 16th on 7 points; Nacional are 15th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.