Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 9Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estádio dos Arcos
Rio Ave
16th · 7 pts0–4FULL TIME
Famalicao
11th · 10 pts35% Rio
25% Draw
39% Famalicao
OUR PICK
Famalicao to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.53
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.46
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.82X3.9822.53
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Rio AveFamalicao0.9Goals per game1.4
2.3Conceded per game1.4
0.70Points per game1.00
20%Win rate20%
-14Goal difference0
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Rio Ave form
LLWWLA Academico Viseu2–1
H Famalicao0–4
A Louletano0–1
H Nacional3–2
A Alverca1–0
Famalicao form
LDWLLA SC Braga3–0
A SC Braga2–2
A Rio Ave0–4
A Paredes1–0
H Alverca1–4
Head to head
0
Rio
3
Draw
2
Famalicao
Oct 2026Rio Ave – Famalicao0–4
Mar 2026Rio Ave – Famalicao0–0
Sept 2025Famalicao – Rio Ave0–0
Mar 2025Famalicao – Rio Ave1–0
Oct 2024Rio Ave – Famalicao1–1
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Rio Ave 35%, the draw 25%, Famalicao 39%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.37 for Rio Ave, 1.46 for Famalicao), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Rio Ave sit 16th on 7 points; Famalicao are 11th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.