WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Skonto stadions

Riga

21st · 2 pts

1–1FULL TIME

Kairat Almaty

31st · 1 pts

63% Riga

19% Draw

18% Kairat

OUR PICK

Riga to win

Model probability 63% · fair odds

1.60

Expected goals

2.29 – 1.16

Confidence

High

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.60X5.2025.51

Goals 2.5Over1.49Under2.86

Both scoreGG1.62NG2.48

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.16

Over 1.5

86%

Over/Under 2.5@1.49

Over 2.5

67%

Both teams to score@1.62

62%

Double chance@1.22

82%

Season stats

RigaKairat Almaty

1.0Goals per game1.0

1.0Conceded per game3.0

1.00Points per game0.50

0%Win rate0%

0Goal difference-4

2Form, last 5 (pts)1

Riga form

DWDWD

A Ogre United0–0

A Grobiņa2–5

A Pafos1–1

H Super Nova2–1

H Kairat Almaty1–1

Kairat Almaty form

DDLWD

H Altay1–1

A Aktobe2–2

H Panathinaikos1–5

H Irtysh5–0

A Riga1–1

Head to head

Riga

Draw

Kairat

Oct 2026Riga – Kairat Almaty1–1

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Panathinaikos2+56

2FC Lugano2+46

3Brann2+46

4Trabzonspor2+46

5Twente2+46

6Monaco2+46

7St. Truiden2+36

8HNK Hajduk Split2+26

9Brighton2+44

10FC Copenhagen2+34

Match preview

Our model makes Riga clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.29 for Riga, 1.16 for Kairat Almaty), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Riga sit 21st on 2 points; Kairat Almaty are 31st on 1.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

Discuss on Telegram More UEFA Europa Conference League tips