Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Skonto stadions
Riga
21st · 2 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
FK Jablonec
24th · 1 pts47% Riga
26% Draw
27% FK
OUR PICK
Riga to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.11
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.05
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.11X3.8523.75
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.87
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
RigaFK Jablonec1.0Goals per game1.0
1.0Conceded per game1.5
1.00Points per game0.50
0%Win rate0%
0Goal difference-1
2Form, last 5 (pts)1
Riga form
DWDWDA Ogre United0–0
A Grobiņa2–5
A Pafos1–1
H Super Nova2–1
H Kairat Almaty1–1
FK Jablonec form
LWDLLH Slavia Praha0–5
A Hradec Králové1–2
H Brighton0–0
H Plzen2–3
A SC Freiburg3–2
Head to head
0
Riga
0
Draw
0
FK
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model makes Riga slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.11 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.49 for Riga, 1.05 for FK Jablonec), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Riga sit 21st on 2 points; FK Jablonec are 24th on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.