Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
AUTBundesliga · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Josko Arena
Ried
6th · 16 pts3–2FULL TIME
Austria Vienna
11th · 7 pts63% Ried
21% Draw
16% Austria
OUR PICK
Ried to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
2.04 – 0.92
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.58X4.8626.19
Goals 2.5Over1.76Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
RiedAustria Vienna1.7Goals per game0.9
1.6Conceded per game2.0
1.45Points per game0.64
36%Win rate18%
1Goal difference-12
11Form, last 5 (pts)1
Ried form
DLDWWA SCR Altach1–1
A Lask Linz5–4
A Sturm Graz2–2
H Austria Vienna3–2
A WSG Wattens1–2
Austria Vienna form
LDLLLH Rapid Vienna0–2
H TSV Hartberg1–1
A SCR Altach2–1
A Ried3–2
H Sturm Graz0–2
Head to head
1
Ried
0
Draw
4
Austria
Oct 2026Ried – Austria Vienna3–2
Mar 2026Ried – Austria Vienna0–2
Sept 2025Austria Vienna – Ried3–2
Mar 2023Ried – Austria Vienna1–3
Sept 2022Austria Vienna – Ried3–0
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rapid Vienna11+2430
2Red Bull Salzburg11+2327
3Lask Linz11+1322
4Sturm Graz11+619
5TSV Hartberg11+117
6Ried11+116
7WSG Wattens11-312
8SCR Altach11-610
9Grazer AK11-1910
10Austria Lustenau11-168
Match preview
Our model makes Ried clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.04 for Ried, 0.92 for Austria Vienna), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ried sit 6th on 16 points; Austria Vienna are 11th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.