Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Red Bull Arena
Red Bull Salzburg
21st · 4 pts0–4FULL TIME
AC Milan
24th · 3 pts66% Red
20% Draw
14% AC
OUR PICK
Red Bull Salzburg to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.51
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.81
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.51X5.0227.29
Goals 2.5Over1.83Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.94
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.94
NG
52%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
Red Bull SalzburgAC Milan1.0Goals per game1.3
2.0Conceded per game1.7
1.33Points per game1.00
33%Win rate33%
-3Goal difference-1
4Form, last 5 (pts)3
Red Bull Salzburg form
WWWDWH Austria Lustenau5–1
A Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz2–3
A Lask Linz1–3
A Celje2–2
H SCR Altach3–0
AC Milan form
WLWLWH Inter3–1
H Bologna2–4
A Udinese0–2
A Bournemouth3–0
H Atalanta3–2
Head to head
0
Red
1
Draw
2
AC
Oct 2026Red Bull Salzburg – AC Milan0–4
Nov 2022AC Milan – Red Bull Salzburg4–0
Sept 2022Red Bull Salzburg – AC Milan1–1
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Red Bull Salzburg clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (2.06 for Red Bull Salzburg, 0.81 for AC Milan), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Red Bull Salzburg sit 21st on 4 points; AC Milan are 24th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.