Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 12Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Anoeta
Real Sociedad
5th · 19 pts16:15KICK-OFF WAT
Rayo Vallecano
12th · 12 pts56% Real
19% Draw
24% Rayo
OUR PICK
Real Sociedad to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.77
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.55
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.77X5.1824.11
Goals 2.5Over1.33Under3.77
Both scoreGG1.40NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.33
Over 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.40
GG
72%
Double chance@1.24
12
81%
Season stats
Real SociedadRayo Vallecano1.8Goals per game1.5
1.8Conceded per game2.0
1.73Points per game1.20
55%Win rate30%
0Goal difference-5
12Form, last 5 (pts)8
Real Sociedad form
LWWWDA Athletic Club2–1
H Levante2–1
A Lillestrom0–6
A Malaga2–5
A Union St. Gilloise1–1
Rayo Vallecano form
WWLDDH Celta Vigo3–0
A Recreativo Huelva2–3
H Elche0–3
A Getafe1–1
H Athletic Club0–0
Head to head
1
Real
2
Draw
2
Rayo
Apr 2026Rayo Vallecano – Real Sociedad3–3
Oct 2025Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano0–1
Mar 2025Rayo Vallecano – Real Sociedad2–2
Jan 2025Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano3–1
Aug 2024Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano1–2
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model makes Real Sociedad clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.77 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.0 goals in total (2.40 for Real Sociedad, 1.55 for Rayo Vallecano), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Real Sociedad sit 5th on 19 points; Rayo Vallecano are 12th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.