Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 10Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio Ciudad Deportiva Zubieta
Real Sociedad II
18th · 11 pts2–4FULL TIME
Almeria
2nd · 26 pts20% Real
24% Draw
56% Almeria
OUR PICK
Almeria to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.79
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.69
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.96X4.1521.79
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.95
NG
51%
Double chance@1.25
X2
80%
Season stats
Real Sociedad IIAlmeria1.3Goals per game1.9
1.8Conceded per game0.8
0.92Points per game2.17
25%Win rate67%
-7Goal difference13
3Form, last 5 (pts)11
Real Sociedad II form
WLLLLH Girona1–0
A Las Palmas1–0
H Almeria2–4
A Celta de Vigo II4–1
H Granada CF2–3
Almeria form
DWDWWA Eibar1–1
A Castellonense1–2
H Oviedo2–2
A Real Sociedad II2–4
H Leganes3–0
Head to head
0
Real
1
Draw
4
Almeria
Oct 2026Real Sociedad II – Almeria2–4
Mar 2026Almeria – Real Sociedad II5–1
Aug 2025Real Sociedad II – Almeria2–2
May 2022Real Sociedad II – Almeria0–2
Oct 2021Almeria – Real Sociedad II3–1
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Sporting Gijon12022
6Girona12+1121
7Burgos12+421
8Mallorca11+719
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Almeria clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.79 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (0.91 for Real Sociedad II, 1.69 for Almeria), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Real Sociedad II sit 18th on 11 points; Almeria are 2nd on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.