Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 31Sunday, 25 October 2026 · America First Field
Real Salt Lake
11th · 42 pts3–0FULL TIME
St. Louis City
4th · 51 pts36% Real
24% Draw
40% St.
OUR PICK
St. Louis City to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.52
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.57
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.76X4.1622.52
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
61%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Real Salt LakeSt. Louis City1.5Goals per game1.8
1.5Conceded per game1.5
1.27Points per game1.55
36%Win rate42%
0Goal difference10
10Form, last 5 (pts)1
Real Salt Lake form
LWWWDA San Jose Earthquakes2–1
A Austin1–2
H St. Louis City3–0
A Sporting Kansas City1–3
H San Jose Earthquakes1–1
St. Louis City form
LLLDLH San Diego0–1
H Portland Timbers2–3
A Real Salt Lake3–0
A Columbus Crew0–0
A Minnesota United FC3–2
Head to head
2
Real
3
Draw
0
St.
Oct 2026Real Salt Lake – St. Louis City3–0
Aug 2026St. Louis City – Real Salt Lake1–1
Oct 2025St. Louis City – Real Salt Lake2–2
Jul 2025Real Salt Lake – St. Louis City3–2
Feb 2025St. Louis City – Real Salt Lake1–1
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Real Salt Lake 36%, the draw 24%, St. Louis City 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.49 for Real Salt Lake, 1.57 for St. Louis City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Real Salt Lake sit 11th on 42 points; St. Louis City are 4th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.