Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
81%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 29Thursday, 15 October 2026 · America First Field
Real Salt Lake
11th · 42 pts1–1FULL TIME
San Jose Earthquakes
3rd · 52 pts41% Real
24% Draw
35% San
OUR PICK
Real Salt Lake to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.47
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.43X4.1922.86
Goals 2.5Over1.68Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.62NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.68
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.62
GG
62%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Real Salt LakeSan Jose Earthquakes1.5Goals per game1.7
1.5Conceded per game1.5
1.27Points per game1.58
36%Win rate42%
0Goal difference8
10Form, last 5 (pts)6
Real Salt Lake form
LWWWDA San Jose Earthquakes2–1
A Austin1–2
H St. Louis City3–0
A Sporting Kansas City1–3
H San Jose Earthquakes1–1
San Jose Earthquakes form
WDLDDH Real Salt Lake2–1
H Colorado Rapids2–2
A FC Dallas3–0
H Nashville SC1–1
A Real Salt Lake1–1
Head to head
0
Real
0
Draw
0
San
These sides haven't met recently.
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Real Salt Lake 41%, the draw 24%, San Jose Earthquakes 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.61 for Real Salt Lake, 1.47 for San Jose Earthquakes), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Real Salt Lake sit 11th on 42 points; San Jose Earthquakes are 3rd on 52.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.