Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 8Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Santiago Bernabéu Stadium
Real Madrid
3rd · 27 pts1–0FULL TIME
Villarreal
9th · 12 pts70% Real
17% Draw
13% Villarreal
OUR PICK
Real Madrid to win
Model probability 70% · fair odds
1.44
Expected goals
2.51 – 1.02
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.44X5.9127.44
Goals 2.5Over1.46Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.70NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.46
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.70
GG
59%
Double chance@1.16
1X
87%
Season stats
Real MadridVillarreal2.5Goals per game1.4
0.9Conceded per game1.4
2.45Points per game1.09
82%Win rate27%
18Goal difference0
12Form, last 5 (pts)7
Real Madrid form
WWWWWA Racing Santander0–3
A Barcelona1–2
H RB Leipzig4–1
H Sevilla4–1
A AS Roma3–4
Villarreal form
LWWLDH Espanyol0–1
A Manacor0–5
A Valencia1–2
A Liverpool4–3
H Elche0–0
Head to head
5
Real
0
Draw
0
Villarreal
Oct 2026Real Madrid – Villarreal1–0
Jan 2026Villarreal – Real Madrid0–2
Oct 2025Real Madrid – Villarreal3–1
Mar 2025Villarreal – Real Madrid1–2
Oct 2024Real Madrid – Villarreal2–0
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model makes Real Madrid clear favourites, giving them a 70% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.44 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.51 for Real Madrid, 1.02 for Villarreal), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Real Madrid sit 3rd on 27 points; Villarreal are 9th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.