Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
85%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 9Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Santiago Bernabéu Stadium
Real Madrid
3rd · 27 pts4–1FULL TIME
Sevilla
6th · 17 pts68% Real
18% Draw
14% Sevilla
OUR PICK
Real Madrid to win
Model probability 68% · fair odds
1.47
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.00
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.47X5.6527.10
Goals 2.5Over1.52Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.74NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.74
GG
57%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
Real MadridSevilla2.5Goals per game1.5
0.9Conceded per game1.7
2.45Points per game1.55
82%Win rate45%
18Goal difference-2
12Form, last 5 (pts)4
Real Madrid form
WWWWWA Racing Santander0–3
A Barcelona1–2
H RB Leipzig4–1
H Sevilla4–1
A AS Roma3–4
Sevilla form
LWWLDA Getafe3–1
A Hortaleza0–3
H Osasuna2–0
A Real Madrid4–1
A Levante3–3
Head to head
5
Real
0
Draw
0
Sevilla
Oct 2026Real Madrid – Sevilla4–1
May 2026Sevilla – Real Madrid0–1
Dec 2025Real Madrid – Sevilla2–0
May 2025Sevilla – Real Madrid0–2
Dec 2024Real Madrid – Sevilla4–2
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Real Madrid clear favourites, giving them a 68% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.47 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.40 for Real Madrid, 1.00 for Sevilla), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Real Madrid sit 3rd on 27 points; Sevilla are 6th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.