Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
93%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 7Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Leipzig Red Bull Arena
RB Leipzig
4th · 15 pts4–0FULL TIME
SV Elversberg
7th · 13 pts54% RB
19% Draw
27% SV
OUR PICK
RB Leipzig to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.84
Expected goals
2.51 – 1.75
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.84X5.2823.75
Goals 2.5Over1.26Under4.72
Both scoreGG1.32NG3.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.26
Over 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.32
GG
76%
Double chance@1.23
12
81%
Season stats
RB LeipzigSV Elversberg2.8Goals per game2.0
1.4Conceded per game2.0
1.88Points per game1.63
63%Win rate50%
11Goal difference0
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
RB Leipzig form
WWWLLA FC Schalke 040–2
A Rot-Weiß Essen1–2
H SV Elversberg4–0
A Real Madrid4–1
A Bayern München6–1
SV Elversberg form
WLLWLH FSV Mainz 054–1
H SV Darmstadt 980–2
A RB Leipzig4–0
H FC Augsburg4–3
A Union Berlin1–0
Head to head
2
RB
0
Draw
1
SV
Oct 2026RB Leipzig – SV Elversberg4–0
Mar 2014RB Leipzig – SV Elversberg2–0
Sept 2013SV Elversberg – RB Leipzig1–0
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes RB Leipzig slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.84 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.3 goals in total (2.51 for RB Leipzig, 1.75 for SV Elversberg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
RB Leipzig sit 4th on 15 points; SV Elversberg are 7th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.