Over 1.5 goals@1.09
Over 1.5
92%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · Leipzig Red Bull Arena
RB Leipzig
30th · 3 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Manchester City
10th · 6 pts25% RB
19% Draw
56% Manchester
OUR PICK
Manchester City to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.78
Expected goals
1.63 – 2.48
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.03X5.2721.78
Goals 2.5Over1.29Under4.29
Both scoreGG1.36NG3.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.29
Over 2.5
78%
Both teams to score@1.36
GG
74%
Double chance@1.23
12
81%
Season stats
RB LeipzigManchester City1.0Goals per game3.0
2.7Conceded per game1.7
1.00Points per game2.00
33%Win rate67%
-5Goal difference4
3Form, last 5 (pts)6
RB Leipzig form
WWWLLA FC Schalke 040–2
A Rot-Weiß Essen1–2
H SV Elversberg4–0
A Real Madrid4–1
A Bayern München6–1
Manchester City form
LDLWWH Brighton0–1
H Brighton2–2
A Aston Villa2–1
H AEK Athens FC5–1
H Ipswich3–2
Head to head
1
RB
1
Draw
3
Manchester
Nov 2023Manchester City – RB Leipzig3–2
Oct 2023RB Leipzig – Manchester City1–3
Mar 2023Manchester City – RB Leipzig7–0
Feb 2023RB Leipzig – Manchester City1–1
Dec 2021RB Leipzig – Manchester City2–1
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Manchester City clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (1.63 for RB Leipzig, 2.48 for Manchester City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
RB Leipzig sit 30th on 3 points; Manchester City are 10th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.