Over 1.5 goals@1.07
Over 1.5
93%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 9Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Red Bull Arena
RB Leipzig
4th · 15 pts15:30KICK-OFF WAT
FC Augsburg
10th · 9 pts63% RB
17% Draw
20% FC
OUR PICK
RB Leipzig to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
2.84 – 1.59
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.58X5.9225.04
Goals 2.5Over1.22Under5.24
Both scoreGG1.33NG3.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.22
Over 2.5
82%
Both teams to score@1.33
GG
75%
Double chance@1.20
12
83%
Season stats
RB LeipzigFC Augsburg2.8Goals per game2.3
1.4Conceded per game1.9
1.88Points per game1.13
63%Win rate25%
11Goal difference3
9Form, last 5 (pts)2
RB Leipzig form
WWWLLA FC Schalke 040–2
A Rot-Weiß Essen1–2
H SV Elversberg4–0
A Real Madrid4–1
A Bayern München6–1
FC Augsburg form
LWDLDH SC Freiburg1–2
A SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach2–4
H Union Berlin1–1
A SV Elversberg4–3
H Bayern München2–2
Head to head
3
RB
2
Draw
0
FC
Mar 2026RB Leipzig – FC Augsburg2–1
Oct 2025FC Augsburg – RB Leipzig0–6
Feb 2025FC Augsburg – RB Leipzig0–0
Sept 2024RB Leipzig – FC Augsburg4–0
Feb 2024FC Augsburg – RB Leipzig2–2
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes RB Leipzig clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.4 goals in total (2.84 for RB Leipzig, 1.59 for FC Augsburg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
RB Leipzig sit 4th on 15 points; FC Augsburg are 10th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.