Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
BRASerie A · Matchday 29Wednesday, 7 October 2026 · Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques
RB Bragantino
9th · 44 pts1–1FULL TIME
Mirassol
16th · 37 pts52% RB
26% Draw
22% Mirassol
OUR PICK
RB Bragantino to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.92
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.91
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.92X3.8924.49
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.80
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.88
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.88
NG
53%
Double chance@1.29
1X
78%
Season stats
RB BragantinoMirassol1.3Goals per game1.1
1.2Conceded per game1.4
1.33Points per game1.12
36%Win rate27%
4Goal difference-10
8Form, last 5 (pts)5
RB Bragantino form
WLDWDH Chapecoense-sc3–0
A Palmeiras2–0
A Remo1–1
H Cruzeiro4–2
H Mirassol1–1
Mirassol form
LDWLDA Corinthians2–0
H Sao Paulo1–1
H Internacional2–0
A Bahia1–0
A RB Bragantino1–1
Head to head
1
RB
3
Draw
1
Mirassol
Oct 2026RB Bragantino – Mirassol1–1
May 2026Mirassol – RB Bragantino2–1
Apr 2026RB Bragantino – Mirassol1–1
Apr 2026Mirassol – RB Bragantino0–1
Jan 2026Mirassol – RB Bragantino0–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes RB Bragantino slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.92 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.54 for RB Bragantino, 0.91 for Mirassol), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
RB Bragantino sit 9th on 44 points; Mirassol are 16th on 37.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.