Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 10Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Estadio de Vallecas
Rayo Vallecano
11th · 12 pts0–3FULL TIME
Elche
17th · 10 pts55% Rayo
21% Draw
23% Elche
OUR PICK
Rayo Vallecano to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.81
Expected goals
2.06 – 1.28
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.81X4.7124.26
Goals 2.5Over1.54Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.59NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.54
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.59
GG
63%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
Rayo VallecanoElche1.5Goals per game1.3
2.0Conceded per game1.6
1.20Points per game0.91
30%Win rate18%
-5Goal difference-4
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
Rayo Vallecano form
WWLDDH Celta Vigo3–0
A Recreativo Huelva2–3
H Elche0–3
A Getafe1–1
H Athletic Club0–0
Elche form
LWWDDH Valencia0–1
A Pinatar1–3
A Rayo Vallecano0–3
A Villarreal0–0
H Celta Vigo0–0
Head to head
2
Rayo
0
Draw
3
Elche
Oct 2026Rayo Vallecano – Elche0–3
Apr 2026Rayo Vallecano – Elche1–0
Dec 2025Elche – Rayo Vallecano4–0
Apr 2023Elche – Rayo Vallecano4–0
Oct 2022Rayo Vallecano – Elche2–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Rayo Vallecano clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.81 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.06 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.28 for Elche), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Rayo Vallecano sit 11th on 12 points; Elche are 17th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.