Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 11Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Estadio de Vallecas
Rayo Vallecano
11th · 12 pts3–0FULL TIME
Celta Vigo
9th · 12 pts36% Rayo
28% Draw
36% Celta
OUR PICK
Rayo Vallecano to win
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.75
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.18
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.75X3.5922.79
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.73
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.93
NG
52%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
Rayo VallecanoCelta Vigo1.5Goals per game0.9
2.0Conceded per game0.9
1.20Points per game1.09
30%Win rate18%
-5Goal difference0
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
Rayo Vallecano form
No recent matches.
Celta Vigo form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Rayo
0
Draw
0
Celta
These sides haven't met recently.
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid10+1524
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad10+119
6Sevilla10017
7Athletic Club9+312
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Rayo Vallecano 36%, the draw 28%, Celta Vigo 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.19 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.18 for Celta Vigo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Rayo Vallecano sit 11th on 12 points; Celta Vigo are 9th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.