Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
NOR1. Division · Matchday 25Sunday, 11 October 2026 · NAMMO Stadion
Raufoss
16th · 20 pts1–2FULL TIME
Moss
14th · 29 pts32% Raufoss
23% Draw
45% Moss
OUR PICK
Moss to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.22
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.79
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.12X4.3722.22
Goals 2.5Over1.58Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.55NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.58
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.55
GG
64%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
RaufossMoss1.1Goals per game1.4
2.7Conceded per game2.1
0.69Points per game1.00
21%Win rate28%
-47Goal difference-21
1Form, last 5 (pts)4
Raufoss form
LLLLDA Lyn4–0
H Ranheim1–3
A Sogndal2–1
A hodd5–1
A Bryne1–1
Moss form
LLLDWA Stromsgodset2–0
H Asane1–3
A Lyn1–0
H Egersund0–0
A Raufoss1–2
Head to head
2
Raufoss
2
Draw
1
Moss
Oct 2026Raufoss – Moss1–2
Jul 2026Moss – Raufoss1–2
Feb 2026Raufoss – Moss3–3
Nov 2025Moss – Raufoss1–1
Apr 2025Raufoss – Moss3–2
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Haugesund29+3665
2Stromsgodset29+4563
3Kongsvinger29+3659
4Stabaek29+3358
5ODD Ballklubb29+1146
6Bryne29+243
7Ranheim29+441
8Egersund29-938
9hodd29-1038
10Strommen29-1236
Match preview
Our model makes Moss slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.22 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.48 for Raufoss, 1.79 for Moss), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Raufoss sit 16th on 20 points; Moss are 14th on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.