Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
75%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio El Sardinero
Racing Santander
16th · 11 pts2–2FULL TIME
Valencia
19th · 9 pts45% Racing
25% Draw
30% Valencia
OUR PICK
Racing Santander to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.24
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.20
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.24X3.9523.33
Goals 2.5Over1.96Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
55%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Racing SantanderValencia1.4Goals per game0.7
2.6Conceded per game1.5
1.00Points per game0.82
27%Win rate18%
-14Goal difference-9
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Racing Santander form
LWWLDH Real Madrid0–3
A Ribadesella CF0–2
H Espanyol2–1
A Osasuna2–0
H Valencia2–2
Valencia form
WLDDLA Elche0–1
H Villarreal1–2
H Athletic Club0–0
A Racing Santander2–2
H Real Sociedad2–3
Head to head
0
Racing
3
Draw
2
Valencia
Oct 2026Racing Santander – Valencia2–2
Jan 2012Racing Santander – Valencia2–2
Aug 2011Valencia – Racing Santander4–3
Jan 2011Racing Santander – Valencia1–1
Sept 2010Valencia – Racing Santander1–0
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model makes Racing Santander slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.52 for Racing Santander, 1.20 for Valencia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Racing Santander sit 16th on 11 points; Valencia are 19th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.