Over 1.5 goals@1.51
Over 1.5
66%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio Osvaldo Roberto
Racing Montevideo
5th · 60 pts3–0FULL TIME
Wanderers
7th · 51 pts49% Racing
27% Draw
23% Wanderers
OUR PICK
Racing Montevideo to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.03
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.87
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.03X3.6624.28
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Season stats
Racing MontevideoWanderers1.3Goals per game1.2
0.9Conceded per game1.3
1.71Points per game1.46
46%Win rate40%
14Goal difference-2
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Racing Montevideo form
WDWLLH Cerro Largo3–1
A Defensor Sporting3–3
H Wanderers3–0
A Juventud2–0
H Penarol0–1
Wanderers form
DLLLDA Penarol1–1
H Progreso0–1
A Racing Montevideo3–0
H Boston River1–3
A Cerrito2–2
Head to head
3
Racing
2
Draw
0
Wanderers
Oct 2026Racing Montevideo – Wanderers3–0
Apr 2026Wanderers – Racing Montevideo1–2
Aug 2025Racing Montevideo – Wanderers1–0
Mar 2025Racing Montevideo – Wanderers0–0
Feb 2025Wanderers – Racing Montevideo0–0
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Racing Montevideo slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.03 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.40 for Racing Montevideo, 0.87 for Wanderers), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Racing Montevideo sit 5th on 60 points; Wanderers are 7th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.