Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
62%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 9Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Estadio Osvaldo Roberto
Racing Montevideo
5th · 60 pts0–1FULL TIME
Penarol
1st · 65 pts36% Racing
30% Draw
33% Penarol
OUR PICK
Racing Montevideo to win
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.74
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.01
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.74X3.3222.99
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.53
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.72
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.72
NG
58%
Double chance@1.43
12
70%
Season stats
Racing MontevideoPenarol1.3Goals per game1.5
0.9Conceded per game0.8
1.71Points per game1.86
46%Win rate54%
14Goal difference24
7Form, last 5 (pts)6
Racing Montevideo form
WDWLLH Cerro Largo3–1
A Defensor Sporting3–3
H Wanderers3–0
A Juventud2–0
H Penarol0–1
Penarol form
DLDLDH Wanderers1–1
H Atletico Torque0–2
A Juventud0–0
A Liverpool Montevideo1–0
H Progreso1–1
Head to head
1
Racing
1
Draw
3
Penarol
Oct 2026Racing Montevideo – Penarol0–1
Jul 2026Racing Montevideo – Penarol1–1
Mar 2026Penarol – Racing Montevideo1–2
Jan 2026Penarol – Racing Montevideo1–0
Aug 2025Racing Montevideo – Penarol1–4
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado35+2263
3Atletico Torque35+1863
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC35+347
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Racing Montevideo 36%, the draw 30%, Penarol 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.74 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.07 for Racing Montevideo, 1.01 for Penarol), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Racing Montevideo sit 5th on 60 points; Penarol are 1st on 65.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.