Over 1.5 goals@1.78
Over 1.5
56%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 33Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes
Quilmes
0–1FULL TIME
Agropecuario
48% Quilmes
31% Draw
21% Agropecuario
OUR PICK
Quilmes to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.09
Expected goals
1.19 – 0.69
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.09X3.2724.66
Goals 2.5Over3.25Under1.41
Both scoreGG2.70NG1.53
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Under 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.53
NG
65%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Quilmes form
WWLLDA Gimnasia Y Tiro0–1
H San Martin Tucuman2–1
A Atletico DE Rafaela1–0
H Agropecuario0–1
A Tristan Suarez0–0
Agropecuario form
WWLWDH Almagro2–1
A Patronato0–2
H Colegiales0–3
A Quilmes0–1
H Midland0–0
Head to head
1
Quilmes
3
Draw
1
Agropecuario
Oct 2026Quilmes – Agropecuario0–1
May 2026Agropecuario – Quilmes0–0
Aug 2024Quilmes – Agropecuario1–0
Mar 2024Agropecuario – Quilmes1–1
Mar 2022Quilmes – Agropecuario1–1
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes35+149
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Quilmes slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 31% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.09 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.19 for Quilmes, 0.69 for Agropecuario), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.