Over 1.5 goals@1.52
Over 1.5
66%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Loftus Road
QPR
9th · 20 pts5–0FULL TIME
Swansea
2nd · 26 pts25% QPR
28% Draw
47% Swansea
OUR PICK
Swansea to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.12
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.35
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.00X3.6022.12
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.64
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.64
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.33
X2
75%
Season stats
QPRSwansea1.6Goals per game1.5
1.2Conceded per game1.0
1.54Points per game2.00
38%Win rate62%
5Goal difference7
7Form, last 5 (pts)9
QPR form
LWLWDA Southampton4–1
H Swansea5–0
A Birmingham3–0
H Derby4–1
A West Ham1–1
Swansea form
WLLWWH Blackburn4–0
A QPR5–0
H West Ham0–1
A Millwall0–1
H Norwich2–1
Head to head
2
QPR
0
Draw
3
Swansea
Oct 2026QPR – Swansea5–0
Apr 2026QPR – Swansea1–2
Oct 2025Swansea – QPR0–1
Apr 2025QPR – Swansea1–2
Dec 2024Swansea – QPR3–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Swansea slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.12 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (0.90 for QPR, 1.35 for Swansea), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
QPR sit 9th on 20 points; Swansea are 2nd on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.