Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
74%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 10Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · Loftus Road
QPR
9th · 20 pts4–1FULL TIME
Derby
23rd · 7 pts62% QPR
22% Draw
16% Derby
OUR PICK
QPR to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.79
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.61X4.4926.38
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.95
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.85
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.85
NG
54%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
QPRDerby1.6Goals per game0.8
1.2Conceded per game1.9
1.54Points per game0.54
38%Win rate8%
5Goal difference-14
7Form, last 5 (pts)2
QPR form
LWLWDA Southampton4–1
H Swansea5–0
A Birmingham3–0
H Derby4–1
A West Ham1–1
Derby form
LDLLDA Millwall4–1
A Sheffield Utd1–1
H Stoke City0–1
A QPR4–1
H Wrexham1–1
Head to head
2
QPR
0
Draw
3
Derby
Oct 2026QPR – Derby4–1
Apr 2026QPR – Derby2–3
Oct 2025Derby – QPR1–0
Feb 2025QPR – Derby4–0
Oct 2024Derby – QPR2–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes QPR clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.83 for QPR, 0.79 for Derby), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
QPR sit 9th on 20 points; Derby are 23rd on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.