Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 14Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · Loftus Road
QPR
9th · 20 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Burnley
22nd · 9 pts63% QPR
20% Draw
17% Burnley
OUR PICK
QPR to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
2.19 – 1.05
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.58X5.0825.84
Goals 2.5Over1.59Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.73
GG
58%
Double chance@1.21
1X
83%
Season stats
QPRBurnley1.6Goals per game1.3
1.2Conceded per game1.9
1.54Points per game0.69
38%Win rate8%
5Goal difference-8
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
QPR form
LWLWDA Southampton4–1
H Swansea5–0
A Birmingham3–0
H Derby4–1
A West Ham1–1
Burnley form
DLLDWH Portsmouth0–0
A Lincoln4–1
H Wolves1–2
H Charlton2–2
A Watford0–4
Head to head
0
QPR
0
Draw
0
Burnley
These sides haven't met recently.
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes QPR clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.19 for QPR, 1.05 for Burnley), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
QPR sit 9th on 20 points; Burnley are 22nd on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.