Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
CHNSuper League · Matchday 27Friday, 9 October 2026 · Qingdao Youth Football Stadium
Qingdao Jonoon
16th · 14 pts0–3FULL TIME
Beijing Guoan
3rd · 47 pts20% Qingdao
20% Draw
60% Beijing
OUR PICK
Beijing Guoan to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.67
Expected goals
1.18 – 2.18
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.04X4.9721.67
Goals 2.5Over1.53Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
61%
Double chance@1.25
X2
80%
Season stats
Qingdao JonoonBeijing Guoan1.2Goals per game2.0
2.1Conceded per game1.2
0.48Points per game1.62
21%Win rate48%
-28Goal difference21
0Form, last 5 (pts)11
Qingdao Jonoon form
LLLLLA Chongqing Tongliang Long2–0
H Shenyang Urban0–4
H Beijing Guoan0–3
A Dalian Zhixing2–1
H Wuhan Three Towns1–5
Beijing Guoan form
DWWWWH Jeonbuk Motors2–2
A Henan Jianye3–4
H Qingdao Youth Island1–0
A Buriram United0–1
A Qingdao Jonoon0–3
Head to head
1
Qingdao
1
Draw
3
Beijing
Oct 2026Qingdao Jonoon – Beijing Guoan0–3
May 2026Beijing Guoan – Qingdao Jonoon4–2
Oct 2025Beijing Guoan – Qingdao Jonoon2–4
May 2025Qingdao Jonoon – Beijing Guoan1–1
Oct 2024Beijing Guoan – Qingdao Jonoon6–0
Super League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Chengdu Better City29+1652
2Dalian Zhixing29+349
3Beijing Guoan29+2147
4Shandong Luneng29+1044
5SHANGHAI SIPG29+1442
6Yunnan Yukun29-340
7Qingdao Youth Island29-639
8Shanghai Shenhua29+1337
9Chongqing Tongliang Long29-336
10Hangzhou Greentown29-334
Match preview
Our model makes Beijing Guoan clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.67 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.18 for Qingdao Jonoon, 2.18 for Beijing Guoan), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Qingdao Jonoon sit 16th on 14 points; Beijing Guoan are 3rd on 47.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.