Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 13Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Estadio Cuauhtémoc
Puebla
14th · 16 pts1–4FULL TIME
Monterrey
8th · 21 pts38% Puebla
26% Draw
36% Monterrey
OUR PICK
Puebla to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.62
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.35
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.62X3.9122.76
Goals 2.5Over1.94Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.80NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.80
GG
56%
Double chance@1.34
12
74%
Season stats
PueblaMonterrey1.1Goals per game1.9
1.5Conceded per game1.5
1.07Points per game1.50
27%Win rate43%
-6Goal difference5
2Form, last 5 (pts)8
Puebla form
LLLDDH U.N.A.M. - Pumas1–2
A Atlas4–3
H Monterrey1–4
A Club Tijuana0–0
H Leon1–1
Monterrey form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Puebla
1
Draw
4
Monterrey
Oct 2026Puebla – Monterrey1–4
Apr 2026Monterrey – Puebla2–1
Aug 2025Puebla – Monterrey2–4
Jan 2025Monterrey – Puebla1–1
Aug 2024Puebla – Monterrey1–2
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Atlas15027
4Cruz Azul14+926
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon14+322
8Monterrey14+521
9U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
10Club Queretaro14-320
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Puebla 38%, the draw 26%, Monterrey 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.62 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.39 for Puebla, 1.35 for Monterrey), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Puebla sit 14th on 16 points; Monterrey are 8th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.