MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Puebla

14th · 16 pts

1–1FULL TIME

Leon

7th · 22 pts

34% Puebla

26% Draw

40% Leon

OUR PICK

Leon to win

Model probability 40% · fair odds

2.52

Expected goals

1.26 – 1.38

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.93X3.8322.52

Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97

Both scoreGG1.87NG2.05

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.35

Over 1.5

74%

Over/Under 2.5@1.97

Under 2.5

51%

Both teams to score@1.87

54%

Double chance@1.35

74%

Season stats

PueblaLeon

1.1Goals per game1.5

1.5Conceded per game1.3

1.07Points per game1.47

27%Win rate40%

-6Goal difference2

2Form, last 5 (pts)5

Puebla form

LLLDD

H U.N.A.M. - Pumas1–2

A Atlas4–3

H Monterrey1–4

A Club Tijuana0–0

H Leon1–1

Leon form

LDWLD

A Cruz Azul2–1

H Toluca1–1

A Tigres UANL0–2

H Club America3–5

A Puebla1–1

Head to head

Puebla

Draw

Leon

Oct 2026Puebla – Leon1–1

Apr 2026Puebla – Leon0–1

Nov 2025Leon – Puebla1–2

Apr 2025Leon – Puebla1–0

Jul 2024Puebla – Leon2–2

Liga MX table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Club America15+1529

2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129

3Cruz Azul15+1029

4Atlas15027

5Toluca15+1024

6Club Tijuana15+422

7Leon15+222

8Santos Laguna15+122

9Monterrey14+521

10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220

Match preview

Our model sees little between the sides: Puebla 34%, the draw 26%, Leon 40%.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.26 for Puebla, 1.38 for Leon), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Puebla sit 14th on 16 points; Leon are 7th on 22.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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