Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
92%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 11Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Philips Stadion
PSV Eindhoven
3rd · 23 pts7–0FULL TIME
Willem II
18th · 2 pts87% PSV
9% Draw
5% Willem
OUR PICK
PSV Eindhoven to win
Model probability 87% · fair odds
1.15
Expected goals
3.50 – 0.76
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.15X11.39221.93
Goals 2.5Over1.26Under4.49
Both scoreGG1.94NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.26
Over 2.5
79%
Both teams to score@1.94
GG
52%
Double chance@1.05
1X
95%
Season stats
PSV EindhovenWillem II3.2Goals per game0.9
1.2Conceded per game3.5
2.09Points per game0.18
64%Win rate0%
22Goal difference-29
7Form, last 5 (pts)0
PSV Eindhoven form
No recent matches.
Willem II form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
PSV
0
Draw
0
Willem
These sides haven't met recently.
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente10+920
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen10+315
9GO Ahead Eagles10014
10Cambuur10-312
Match preview
Our model makes PSV Eindhoven clear favourites, giving them a 87% chance of winning against 9% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.3 goals in total (3.50 for PSV Eindhoven, 0.76 for Willem II), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
PSV Eindhoven sit 3rd on 23 points; Willem II are 18th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.