Over 1.5 goals@1.59
Over 1.5
63%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 13Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Parque Abraham Paladino
Progreso
15th · 35 pts0–0LIVE 38'
Defensor Sporting
14th · 36 pts38% Progreso
30% Draw
33% Defensor
OUR PICK
Progreso to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.65
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.02
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.65X3.3823.06
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.57
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.76
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.76
NG
57%
Double chance@1.42
12
70%
Season stats
ProgresoDefensor Sporting0.9Goals per game1.0
1.4Conceded per game1.3
1.03Points per game1.06
29%Win rate24%
-16Goal difference-10
10Form, last 5 (pts)4
Progreso form
No recent matches.
Defensor Sporting form
No recent matches.
Head to head
1
Progreso
1
Draw
3
Defensor
Apr 2026Defensor Sporting – Progreso1–0
Jan 2026Defensor Sporting – Progreso0–0
Oct 2025Progreso – Defensor Sporting2–3
Apr 2025Defensor Sporting – Progreso1–2
Nov 2024Defensor Sporting – Progreso3–0
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
3Atletico Torque34+1760
4Racing Montevideo35+1460
5Club Nacional34+1058
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Progreso 38%, the draw 30%, Defensor Sporting 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.12 for Progreso, 1.02 for Defensor Sporting), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Progreso sit 15th on 35 points; Defensor Sporting are 14th on 36.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.