Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 15Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Deepdale
Preston
24th · 5 pts16:00KICK-OFF WAT
Southampton
5th · 23 pts11% Preston
17% Draw
72% Southampton
OUR PICK
Southampton to win
Model probability 72% · fair odds
1.39
Expected goals
0.79 – 2.35
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X219.21X5.8821.39
Goals 2.5Over1.65Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.98
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.98
NG
51%
Double chance@1.12
X2
89%
Season stats
PrestonSouthampton0.8Goals per game2.2
2.1Conceded per game1.0
0.38Points per game1.77
8%Win rate62%
-17Goal difference15
1Form, last 5 (pts)13
Preston form
LDLLLA Stoke City2–0
H West Brom1–1
A Wrexham4–1
A Birmingham4–0
H Millwall0–1
Southampton form
WWDWWH QPR4–1
A West Ham2–3
H Bolton0–0
A Norwich0–1
H Portsmouth1–0
Head to head
1
Preston
1
Draw
3
Southampton
May 2026Preston – Southampton1–3
Nov 2025Southampton – Preston0–2
Apr 2024Southampton – Preston3–0
Oct 2023Preston – Southampton2–2
Sept 2011Southampton – Preston2–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Southampton clear favourites, giving them a 72% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (0.79 for Preston, 2.35 for Southampton), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Preston sit 24th on 5 points; Southampton are 5th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.