Over 1.5 goals@1.53
Over 1.5
65%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 14Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth
11th · 19 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Swansea
2nd · 26 pts34% Portsmouth
29% Draw
37% Swansea
OUR PICK
Swansea to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.72
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.14
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.91X3.4622.72
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.63
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.82
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.82
NG
55%
Double chance@1.41
12
71%
Season stats
PortsmouthSwansea1.2Goals per game1.5
1.2Conceded per game1.0
1.46Points per game2.00
38%Win rate62%
1Goal difference7
11Form, last 5 (pts)9
Portsmouth form
DWDWWA Burnley0–0
H Millwall2–1
A Wolves1–1
A Norwich0–1
H Sheffield Utd3–2
Swansea form
WLLWWH Blackburn4–0
A QPR5–0
H West Ham0–1
A Millwall0–1
H Norwich2–1
Head to head
0
Portsmouth
0
Draw
0
Swansea
These sides haven't met recently.
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Portsmouth 34%, the draw 29%, Swansea 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.72 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.09 for Portsmouth, 1.14 for Swansea), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Portsmouth sit 11th on 19 points; Swansea are 2nd on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.