Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 15Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth
11th · 19 pts13:30KICK-OFF WAT
Stoke City
7th · 23 pts39% Portsmouth
28% Draw
33% Stoke
OUR PICK
Portsmouth to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.56
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.14
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.56X3.6223.00
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.76
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.95
NG
51%
Double chance@1.38
12
72%
Season stats
PortsmouthStoke City1.2Goals per game1.5
1.2Conceded per game1.2
1.46Points per game1.77
38%Win rate54%
1Goal difference4
11Form, last 5 (pts)10
Portsmouth form
DWDWWA Burnley0–0
H Millwall2–1
A Wolves1–1
A Norwich0–1
H Sheffield Utd3–2
Stoke City form
WDWLWH Preston2–0
H Bristol City0–0
A Derby0–1
H Middlesbrough2–3
A Bolton1–2
Head to head
2
Portsmouth
0
Draw
3
Stoke
Apr 2026Stoke City – Portsmouth1–3
Oct 2025Portsmouth – Stoke City0–1
Jan 2025Portsmouth – Stoke City3–1
Oct 2024Stoke City – Portsmouth6–1
Aug 2014Stoke City – Portsmouth3–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Portsmouth 39%, the draw 28%, Stoke City 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.26 for Portsmouth, 1.14 for Stoke City), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Portsmouth sit 11th on 19 points; Stoke City are 7th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.