Over 1.5 goals@1.72
Over 1.5
58%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 10Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth
11th · 19 pts3–2FULL TIME
Sheffield Utd
10th · 19 pts36% Portsmouth
31% Draw
32% Sheffield
OUR PICK
Portsmouth to win
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.76
Expected goals
1.01 – 0.94
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.76X3.1923.08
Goals 2.5Over3.04Under1.45
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.45
Under 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.63
NG
61%
Double chance@1.46
12
69%
Season stats
PortsmouthSheffield Utd1.2Goals per game1.3
1.2Conceded per game1.2
1.46Points per game1.46
38%Win rate38%
1Goal difference2
11Form, last 5 (pts)10
Portsmouth form
DWDWWA Burnley0–0
H Millwall2–1
A Wolves1–1
A Norwich0–1
H Sheffield Utd3–2
Sheffield Utd form
WDWLWH Wrexham1–0
H Derby1–1
A Bristol City0–1
A Portsmouth3–2
H Lincoln3–0
Head to head
1
Portsmouth
1
Draw
3
Sheffield
Oct 2026Portsmouth – Sheffield Utd3–2
Feb 2026Portsmouth – Sheffield Utd0–1
Nov 2025Sheffield Utd – Portsmouth3–0
Feb 2025Sheffield Utd – Portsmouth2–1
Sept 2024Portsmouth – Sheffield Utd0–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Portsmouth 36%, the draw 31%, Sheffield Utd 32%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.76 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.01 for Portsmouth, 0.94 for Sheffield Utd), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Portsmouth sit 11th on 19 points; Sheffield Utd are 10th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.